Wy-al, Pres Polling: Race Tightens For Trauner
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (5/20-21)
Lummis (R) 42 (41)
Trauner (D) 42 (44)
Hoo doggie, this is shaping up to be a nail biter. All the months of really ugly primary campaigning for Lummis didn’t do much for her numbers. In hostile territory, and it’s hard to think of a seat more hostile than the one that launched Dick Cheney’s “public service” career, Gary is holding his own.
There’s a huge number of undecideds in this race, most of them Republican (see the crosstabs below the fold). That wariness could come from the ugly Republican primary. The dirty tricks have bled over, with Lummis’s press secretary (a Barbara Cubin alum) stupid stunt of calling into a Trauner press conference, posing as one of his supporters, trying to derail the press conference. She was forced to resign, but it’s the kind of petty, nasty stunt that Cubin liked to pull, something Wyoming voters are unlikely to want to see more of that.
One factor in Gary’s favor in this state: Wyoming’s voters are notorious ticket-splitters. They have a Democratic governor, after all, and have had for 24 of the last 32 years. They vote for Democrats there, and Gary is the likeliest of recipients. My recommendation for who Gary needs to target in the state: Seniors. Even with the current economic crisis, Lummis wants to privatize Social Security.
On the Presidential front, well, no one had particularly high expectations for Wyoming. Obama is outperforming Kerry, who lost 69-29.
McCain (R) 57 (53)
Obama (D) 36 (40)
Full crosstabs below the fold.
On the Web:
Gary Trauner for Congress
Orange to Blue
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