House Poll Roundup
As you may have noticed, things have been pretty busy here at the Swing State Project during the past several weeks. With all the news we’ve been discussing, it’s pretty easy to miss a poll while taking a break to blink. So here’s a roundup of all the House race polls released since the start of September. If I’ve missed something, let me know. Incumbents are in italics.
| District | Poll | Democrat | % | Republican | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Ivan Moore (9/20-22) | Ethan Berkowitz | 49 | Don Young | 44 |
| AK-AL | Fairleigh Dickinson (9/17-21) | Ethan Berkowitz | 47 | Don Young | 41 |
| AK-AL | Research 2000 (9/15-17) | Ethan Berkowitz | 53 | Don Young | 39 |
| AK-AL | Ivan Moore (8/30-9/2) | Ethan Berkowitz | 54 | Don Young | 37 |
| AL-02 | SurveyUSA (8/26-28) | Bobby Bright | 39 | Jay Love | 56 |
| AL-03 | Capital Survey Research Center (9/30-10/1) | Josh Segall | 36 | Mike Rogers | 45 |
| CA-04 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Charlie Brown | 46 | Tom McClintock | 41 |
| CA-04 | Val Smith (9/22-24) | Charlie Brown | 39 | Tom McClintock | 47 |
| CA-04 | Benenson Strategy Group (8/21-24) | Charlie Brown | 43 | Tom McClintock | 41 |
| CO-04 | Grove Insight (9/8-10) | Betsy Markey | 47 | Marilyn Musgrave | 38 |
| CT-02 | University of Connecticut (9/22-28) | Joe Courtney | 55 | Sean Sullivan | 27 |
| CT-04 | Feldman Group (9/17-18) | Jim Himes | 45 | Chrissy Shays | 45 |
| FL-08 | Kitchens Group (9/3-6) | Alan Grayson | 44 | Ric Keller | 40 |
| FL-09 | Momentum Analysis (9/20-22) | Bill Mitchell | 22 | Gus Bilirakis | 45 |
| FL-10 | Anzalone-Liszt (9/7-11) | Bob Hackworth | 33 | Bill Young | 50 |
| FL-13 | Public Opinion Strategies (10/1) | Christine Jennings | 30 | Vern Buchanan | 46 |
| FL-13 | SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1) | Christine Jennings | 33 | Vern Buchanan | 49 |
| FL-13 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Christine Jennings | 31 | Vern Buchanan | 43 |
| FL-13 | Feldman Group (9/22-23) | Christine Jennings | 40 | Vern Buchanan | 44 |
| FL-16 | Tarrance Group (9/7-8) | Tim Mahoney | 48 | Tom Rooney | 41 |
| FL-18 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Annette Taddeo | 36 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | 53 |
| FL-24 | Hamilton Campaigns (9/11-14) | Suzanne Kosmas | 42 | Tom Feeney | 43 |
| FL-25 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Joe Garcia | 41 | M. Diaz-Balart | 45 |
| ID-01 | Harstad Strategic Research (9/25-28) | Walt Minnick | 44 | Bill Sali | 38 |
| ID-01 | Research 2000 (9/17-18) | Walt Minnick | 35 | Bill Sali | 46 |
| ID-01 | Harstad Strategic Research (9/9-11) | Walt Minnick | 43 | Bill Sali | 38 |
| IL-10 | Global Strategy Group (8/17-19) | Dan Seals | 39 | Mark Kirk | 46 |
| IL-10 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/10-11) | Dan Seals | 29 | Mark Kirk | 51 |
| IL-11 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/17-18) | Debbie Halvorson | 38 | Marty Ozinga | 36 |
| IL-11 | Anzalone Liszt (9/14-16) | Debbie Halvorson | 43 | Marty Ozinga | 35 |
| IL-18 | Public Opinion Strategies (8/18-20) | Colleen Callahan | 27 | Aaron Schock | 56 |
| IN-02 | Research 2000 (9/29-30) | Joe Donnelly | 53 | Luke Puckett | 35 |
| IN-03 | Cooper & Secrest (9/9-10) | Mike Montagano | 37 | Mark Souder | 50 |
| IN-09 | SurveyUSA (9/8-10) | Baron Hill | 50 | Mike Sodrel | 39 |
| KY-02 | SurveyUSA (9/24-25) | David Boswell | 43 | Brett Guthrie | 49 |
| KY-02 | Garin Hart Yang (8/23-25) | David Boswell | 41 | Brett Guthrie | 33 |
| KY-04 | SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1) | Michael Kelley | 36 | Geoff Davis | 58 |
| LA-01 | Kitchens Group (9/18-21) | Jim Harlan | 31 | Steve Scalise | 42 |
| LA-06 | Anzalone-Liszt (9/17-21) | Don Cazayoux | 48 | Bill Cassidy | 32 |
| MD-01 | Grove Insight (9/9-12) | Frank Kratovil | 36 | Andy Harris | 36 |
| MI-07 | Myers Research (9/23-24) | Mark Schauer | 42 | Tim Walberg | 36 |
| MI-07 | National Research (9/15-16) | Mark Schauer | 40 | Tim Walberg | 50 |
| MI-09 | Grove Insight (8/17-19) | Gary Peters | 41 | Joe Knollenberg | 37 |
| MN-01 | Tarrance Group (9/17-18) | Tim Walz | 50 | Brian Davis | 32 |
| MN-03 | SurveyUSA (8/26-28) | Ashwin Madia | 41 | Erik Paulsen | 44 |
| MO-06 | SurveyUSA (9/17-18) | Kay Barnes | 42 | Sam Graves | 51 |
| MO-09 | SurveyUSA (9/1-2) | Judy Baker | 38 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | 50 |
| MS-01 | Anzalone Liszt (9/7-10) | Travis Childers | 51 | Greg Davis | 39 |
| NC-08 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/28-29) | Larry Kissell | 54 | Robin Hayes | 43 |
| NC-08 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/23&25) | Larry Kissell | 43 | Robin Hayes | 46 |
| NC-08 | Public Policy Polling (8/25-27) | Larry Kissell | 39 | Robin Hayes | 44 |
| NH-01 | Research 2000 (9/22-24) | Carol Shea-Porter | 44 | Jeb Bradley | 43 |
| NH-01 | UNH (9/14-21) | Carol Shea-Porter | 42 | Jeb Bradley | 45 |
| NH-02 | Research 2000 (9/22-24) | Paul Hodes | 47 | Jennifer Horn | 34 |
| NH-02 | UNH (9/14-21) | Paul Hodes | 38 | Jennifer Horn | 26 |
| NH-02 | Anzalone-Liszt (9/14-18) | Paul Hodes | 50 | Jennifer Horn | 32 |
| NH-02 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/16-17) | Paul Hodes | 43 | Jennifer Horn | 39 |
| NJ-02 | Zogby International (9/18-20) | David Kurkowski | 26 | Frank LoBiondo | 62 |
| NJ-03 | Zogby International (9/18-20) | John Adler | 37 | Chris Myers | 39 |
| NJ-03 | McLaughlin & Associates (9/8-9) | John Adler | 29 | Chris Myers | 33 |
| NJ-05 | Research 2000 (9/17-18) | Dennis Shulman | 34 | Scott Garrett | 49 |
| NJ-07 | Anzalone Liszt (8/20-25) | Linda Stender | 36 | Leonard Lance | 33 |
| NM-01 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/22-23) | Martin Heinrich | 48 | Darren White | 42 |
| NM-01 | SurveyUSA (8/26-28) | Martin Heinrich | 51 | Darren White | 46 |
| NM-02 | Research 2000 (9/30-10/1) | Harry Teague | 47 | Ed Tinsley | 43 |
| NM-02 | Hamilton Campaigns (9/2-5) | Harry Teague | 46 | Ed Tinsley | 41 |
| NV-03 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/23-24) | Dina Titus | 39 | Jon Porter | 41 |
| NV-03 | Anzalone Liszt (9/21-24) | Dina Titus | 46 | Jon Porter | 37 |
| NY-26 | SurveyUSA (9/24-25) | Alice Kryzan | 37 | Chris Lee | 48 |
| NY-26 | Brilliant Corners Research (9/15-17) | Alice Kryzan | 39 | Chris Lee | 29 |
| OH-01 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | Steve Driehaus | 44 | Steve Chabot | 46 |
| OH-02 | Research 2000 (9/30-10/1) | Vic Wulsin | 39 | Jean Schmidt | 46 |
| OH-02 | Momentum Analysis (9/29-30) | Vic Wulsin | 36 | Jean Schmidt | 37 |
| OH-02 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | Vic Wulsin | 40 | Jean Schmidt | 48 |
| OH-02 | Tarrance Group (9/8-9) | Vic Wulsin | 36 | Jean Schmidt | 52 |
| OH-15 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | Mary Jo Kilroy | 47 | Steve Stivers | 42 |
| OH-16 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | John Boccieri | 49 | Kirk Schuring | 41 |
| PA-03 | SurveyUSA (9/26-28) | Kathy Dahlkemper | 49 | Phil English | 45 |
| PA-04 | Public Opinion Strategies (8/17-18) | Jason Altmire | 49 | Melissa Hart | 44 |
| PA-06 | Public Opinion Strategies (8/19-21) | Bob Roggio | 28 | Jim Gerlach | 57 |
| PA-10 | Momentum Analysis (9/29-10/1) | Chris Carney | 50 | Chris Hackett | 36 |
| PA-10 | Lycoming College (9/21-25) | Chris Carney | 46 | Chris Hackett | 36 |
| PA-10 | Momentum Analysis (8/19-21) | Chris Carney | 54 | Chris Hackett | 27 |
| PA-11 | Grove Insight (9/14-15) | Paul Kanjorski | 48 | Lou Barletta | 39 |
| PA-11 | Franklin & Marshall (9/9-14) | Paul Kanjorski | 35 | Lou Barletta | 44 |
| TX-07 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/7-9) | Michael Skelly | 37 | John Culberson | 44 |
| TX-10 | Goodwin Simon Victoria (9/28-30) | Larry Joe Doherty | 38 | Mike McCaul | 43 |
| VA-02 | Bennett Petts Normington (9/21-22) | Glenn Nye | 40 | Thelma Drake | 45 |
| WA-08 | SurveyUSA (9/7-9) | Darcy Burner | 44 | Dave Reichert | 54 |
| WI-08 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/16-17) | Steve Kagen | 46 | John Gard | 45 |
| WY-AL | Research 2000 (9/22-24) | Gary Trauner | 42 | Cynthia Lummis | 42 |
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One Response to “House Poll Roundup”
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The SurveyUSA polls show a very different result for the NH-01 race, where the UNH polling is not particularly accurate. Survey USA shows Shea-Porter at 50% with Bradley at 41. The UNH polls have a 6% moe, which is pretty unreliable, imho.